Odds and Ends: Russian Foreign Policy

I recommend all of Karaganov's columns for concise and clear analysis of Russian politics and for interesting policy prescriptions.  His latest article is no exception.  You can read the entire article by following the link below.

Russia's Luck Has Run Out Sergey Karaganov Russia has been unbelievably lucky in its relations with foreign powers over the past 12 years. But despite positive trends, things are looking less rosy on the country's domestic political front. Read more >

One item that Karaganov picks up on is one that is echoed in a column from Dmitri Trenin.  Karagonov writes: 

In terms of economic development, it is crucial that Russia link itself more closely to the Asian economic powers. This can be accomplished by developing Siberia and the Far East. Russia needs to attract huge foreign investment in the region's infrastructure, raw materials processing and timber. In return, Russia would need to provide highly favorable tax incentives and legal guarantees. 

To boost these efforts, the Kremlin should consider moving part of its functions to a major city in Siberia or the Far East — a "second capital" of sorts. For Russia to have any hope of rivaling Asia's spectacular rise, it would need a modern-day project on a par with the construction in the early 1700s of St. Petersburg, Peter the Great's "window to Europe." 

 Trenin writes (link to article here):

The chief new element in the relationship is easy to see. It is the historical role reversal. In 1979, China's gross domestic product was a mere 40 per cent of that of the Russian republic within the Soviet Union. Nowadays, China's GDP is between four and five times bigger than Russia's. At the heyday of the Sino-Soviet confrontation, the Soviet Union was a military superpower and the People's Liberation Army was essentially preparing for a "people's war". Today, China's defense budget is the world's second largest, way ahead of the 5th-placed Russia. Even more importantly, China's research and development budget dwarfs Russia's. Ultimately - Russians, who heretofore have never lived with a strong China, need to adjust to the new reality. 

For the Russians, of course, having refused in a previous era a junior partnership arrangement with the US, to run now into China's embrace would be not only bitter irony - but supreme folly. Right now, Moscow is busy to craft an Asia policy that is more than a China one. They are already reaching out to Japan, are strengthening relations with South Korea, and are revamping their long-time strategic bonds with India - by now much frayed. They are also seeking economic and security integration with Central Asia, which the Chinese are increasingly viewing as their own backyard.

The irony of Russia's focus on the west and missile shields and problems in Europe is that conflict with another state is more likely to come in one of the Central Asian republics with interference from China.  In terms of what I usually think about on this blog - how will these shifting alliances and economic development change the way that arms are sold throughout the world, and throughout this region?