This post is a break from my usual obsession with arms transfers between states. One of my side projects (and eventually hopefully more than that) is a project in which I examine the role of detainees on the military success of the surge in Iraq. One of the arguments that I make in my working paper (link) is that one of the stronger signals that the US sent during the surge was to begin treating Shiite insurgents more like Sunni insurgents had been treated throughout the conflict. One of the ways that this was done was through detention.
Detention was a strong signal - above and beyond rhetoric - that the US in connection with the government of Iraq was not going to play favorites.
Over the past few weeks protests in Iraq have increased. Sunnis are protesting what they perceive to be as uneven application of laws against the Sunni minority by the majority Shiites. I found it interesting that one of the main areas of contention is detention policy.
The most striking aspect of this graph to me is the huge imbalance of Sunni detainees that occurred in the aftermath of the major sectarian fighting within the country. The ratio was more than 50 Sunnis detained for each Shiite. By the time the surge was announced this ratio moved down into the 5:1 and 4:1 range where it held steady.
It would be interesting to have these same data for the Iraq government prison system.
Detention was a strong signal - above and beyond rhetoric - that the US in connection with the government of Iraq was not going to play favorites.
Over the past few weeks protests in Iraq have increased. Sunnis are protesting what they perceive to be as uneven application of laws against the Sunni minority by the majority Shiites. I found it interesting that one of the main areas of contention is detention policy.
Iraqi premier Nuri al-Maliki looked to head off protests in Sunni areas of the country on Tuesday with a prisoner release even as he threatened to use state resources to "intervene" to end the rallies.
The move came as powerful Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr voiced support for the demonstrations and predicted an impending "Iraqi spring" as ongoing rallies blocked off a key trade route connecting Iraq to Syria and Jordan for a 10th successive day.
Maliki, who is Shiite, ordered the release of more than 700 female detainees, a key demand of demonstrators, the official appointed to negotiate with protesters, told AFP.
"The prime minister will write to the president to issue a special amnesty to release them," Khaled al-Mullah said.
Mullah said of 920 female prisoners in Iraqi jails, 210 had been accused or convicted of terrorism-related offences and could not be released. But, he said, they would be transferred to prisons in their home provinces.
The remaining detainees, convicted on lower-level charges, would be released, he said. He did not give a timeframe for the process. (source)Because my modus operandi is to throw a graph in to illustrate whatever news tickles my fancy, I will conclude this post with a graph from my paper referenced above. It shows the ratio of Sunni to Shiite detainees in US custody during the course of major US operations in Iraq.
The most striking aspect of this graph to me is the huge imbalance of Sunni detainees that occurred in the aftermath of the major sectarian fighting within the country. The ratio was more than 50 Sunnis detained for each Shiite. By the time the surge was announced this ratio moved down into the 5:1 and 4:1 range where it held steady.
It would be interesting to have these same data for the Iraq government prison system.
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