Central Asia and China - Research Note and Questions

Questions

I am beginning an interest in security issues in Central Asia.  I am interested in a few aspects of security.  The first is the continued existence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and its future.  How does a a treaty organization with two great powers that have traditionally been enemies work out?  What are the consequences of China's growing economic ties and Russia's historical ties to the area?  I am also fascinated by the fact that India is a member of the organization, but is a democracy.  How will the organization hold up in the long-term, and what shape will it take if it does survive?

Central Asia as Cake

Some of these questions are brought up in an article on the RFE/RL site:
General Liu Yazhou of China’s People’s Liberation Army perhaps summed up China’s interest in Central Asia best when he said, “Central Asia is the thickest piece of cake given to modern China by the heavens.” 

Central Asia’s energy resources -- oil, natural gas, uranium -- are the cake.
China needs these resources to fuel its economic growth and Beijing is seeking them everywhere in the world. 

But why send oil tankers half way around the world when Central Asia has numerous pipelines, railways and roads are being constructed, largely with Chinese money. All that can bring oil, gas, uranium, and various minerals from Central Asia to China. And the Chinese loans that the Central Asian governments are accepting to develop their oil and gas fields and build the infrastructure needed to export these resources to China are in fact pre-payment for goods to be received later.

Link to full article

The article goes on to downplay the potential expansionist/empire building motivations for China. One key portion of this argument is that China has enough problems within its own borders without expanding them and inviting further unrest. The article also notes that Russia's continued interest in - and support of the military forces of states in the region (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) make it unlikely that China will be able to military dominate the region.

Exercising Restraint

One interesting aspect of the SCO is that its mission has remained defensive.  The organization won't take over security aspects of Afghanistan with the withdrawal of NATO, for example (RIA Novosti). This fits with Russia's own policy urging restraint in the internal matters of other states.

China's own foreign policy of engaging with dictators has not been going well either. States such as Sudan and Venezuela are becoming less stable and less attractive as economic partners.  As Zachary Keck argues in the Diplomat:

This underscores, however, that far from being a strength, China’s dictatorship diplomacy is a sign of its weakness. Because China entered the globalization game relatively late, almost all the most attractive economic partners already had strong and long-standing ties to Western nations. As a result, China to some degree has simply had to settle for the more problematic nations that the West refused to deal with. This inevitably required taking on more risk, and this risk has not paid off for China. Indeed, in the course of just a few short years China’s dictatorship diplomacy has virtually imploded all over the globe.

I have more questions than ideas about security in Central Asia right now, but I am starting a reading list. The first book I have on there is The Beijing Consensus.


See it on Amazon

If you have other books you recommend, please leave them in the comments!