Russia is now involved in the war in Syria. Air strikes and naval bombardment along with cruise missile launches, along with the addition of ground troops as advisers is serious business. The potential for adverse international incidents has increased. The fighting in Ukraine is contained. The fighting in Syria is taking place in the context of continued Western and US airstrikes. The potential for a direct military confrontation between the US and Russia is higher than it has been for a long time.
I am interested in Russia's endgame here. I am curious as to what Putin thinks he will gain. I just started reading a great book that analyzes Putin's actions, and this quote really jumped out at me:
Negative and Potential Negative Consequences for Russian Arms Sales
I have already covered the issue of the Mistral ships. Russia lost these ships as a direct result of their actions in Ukraine. The latest word is that Egypt is going to purchase these ships, which is good for France (LINK). Is there a potential that Russia will lose out on other purchases? Yes, but Russia doesn't import a lot of equipment, so for them, this is just a temporary setback.
The more serious setback for Russia would be if states began cancelling orders for weapons after seeing their actions. This is a real possibility. Turkey is very upset at Russia over incursions into its air space as Russia began its air actions over Syria. This has already had an effect on a joint pipeline project (LINK), and has the potential to damage other relations. Russia and Turkey have cooperated on helicopter manufacturing in the past (a case study from my dissertation), and if Turkey sees Russia becoming a security risk, it will likely move away from such relations.
The performance of Russian equipment in Syria is also a potential negative side effect. If Russian equipment performs poorly (like reports of four cruise missiles crashing in Iran instead of hitting targets in Syria (LINK)), then potential customers may decide to look for other options.
Potential Positive Consequences for Russian Arms Sales
There are two potential positive consequences of Russian actions in Syria from the point of view of Russian arms sales. The first is the converse of the last point made above: positive performance by Russian equipment is free advertising for Russian arms. Seeing weapons tested in combat and working is a great selling point to potential customers.
Other current and potential customers will take note of the point above and may also see the arms relationship becoming a proxy for more formal alliances, thus making continued arms purchases, or new arms purchases more attractive to buyers. Venezuela recently expanded its arms deal with Russia (LINK), as has Thailand (LINK). Interestingly, the deal with Thailand appears to be a barter deal for rubber. This could be an effect of sanctions. Thailand has been diversifying its arms portfolio in recent years.
Potential Positive Effects for US Arms Sales
For the US, Russia being seen as an aggressor may potentially make arms sales to neighboring states a higher priority. States will see this as a way to further integrate with existing US-led defense pacts (NATO), and a way to strengthen and emphasize military ties. Norway, for instance, recently added more planes to its F-35 order because of Russian aggression and escalation in the Baltic and North Sea areas (LINK). This will be dependent on whether states are satisfied with US military hardware, however, which in some recent cases doesn't appear to be the case (LINK).
Other Geopolitical Consequences
Just because I am not going to spend time trying to figure out Putin's motivations, does not mean that I won't point out some geopolitical consequences of Russian military adventurism. The most obvious is that Russia's fears of NATO are now becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy as NATO moves to bolster its powers along Russia's borders and to strengthen commitments to states bordering Russia's active military adventures (Poland, Turkey) (LINK). It is also leading, it appears, to a strengthening of the US resolve on the issue of Ukraine (LINK).
________
[1] Hill, Fiona and Clifford G. Gaddy. 2015. Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin. Brookings Institution. p 7.
I am interested in Russia's endgame here. I am curious as to what Putin thinks he will gain. I just started reading a great book that analyzes Putin's actions, and this quote really jumped out at me:
"...we cannot take any story or so called fact at face value when it comes to Vladimir Putin ... we are dealing with someone who is a master at manipulating information, suppressing information, and creating pseudo-information...In today's world of social media, the public has the impression that we know, or can easily know, everything about everybody. Nothing, it seems, is private or secret. And still, after 15 years, we remain ignorant of some of the most basic facts about a man who is arguably the most powerful individual in the world, the leader of an important nation. When there is no certifiably real and solid information, any tidbit becomes precious." [1]This jumped out to me again when I watched the Daily Vertical podcast about Putin challenging the western world's way of thinking and facts (LINK). While I don't think I have any really new insights into what Russia is doing and thinking, I can at least make some observations about the effects of what they are doing in an area that I do have some insights into: arms transfers.
Negative and Potential Negative Consequences for Russian Arms Sales
I have already covered the issue of the Mistral ships. Russia lost these ships as a direct result of their actions in Ukraine. The latest word is that Egypt is going to purchase these ships, which is good for France (LINK). Is there a potential that Russia will lose out on other purchases? Yes, but Russia doesn't import a lot of equipment, so for them, this is just a temporary setback.
The more serious setback for Russia would be if states began cancelling orders for weapons after seeing their actions. This is a real possibility. Turkey is very upset at Russia over incursions into its air space as Russia began its air actions over Syria. This has already had an effect on a joint pipeline project (LINK), and has the potential to damage other relations. Russia and Turkey have cooperated on helicopter manufacturing in the past (a case study from my dissertation), and if Turkey sees Russia becoming a security risk, it will likely move away from such relations.
The performance of Russian equipment in Syria is also a potential negative side effect. If Russian equipment performs poorly (like reports of four cruise missiles crashing in Iran instead of hitting targets in Syria (LINK)), then potential customers may decide to look for other options.
Potential Positive Consequences for Russian Arms Sales
There are two potential positive consequences of Russian actions in Syria from the point of view of Russian arms sales. The first is the converse of the last point made above: positive performance by Russian equipment is free advertising for Russian arms. Seeing weapons tested in combat and working is a great selling point to potential customers.
Other current and potential customers will take note of the point above and may also see the arms relationship becoming a proxy for more formal alliances, thus making continued arms purchases, or new arms purchases more attractive to buyers. Venezuela recently expanded its arms deal with Russia (LINK), as has Thailand (LINK). Interestingly, the deal with Thailand appears to be a barter deal for rubber. This could be an effect of sanctions. Thailand has been diversifying its arms portfolio in recent years.
Potential Positive Effects for US Arms Sales
For the US, Russia being seen as an aggressor may potentially make arms sales to neighboring states a higher priority. States will see this as a way to further integrate with existing US-led defense pacts (NATO), and a way to strengthen and emphasize military ties. Norway, for instance, recently added more planes to its F-35 order because of Russian aggression and escalation in the Baltic and North Sea areas (LINK). This will be dependent on whether states are satisfied with US military hardware, however, which in some recent cases doesn't appear to be the case (LINK).
Other Geopolitical Consequences
Just because I am not going to spend time trying to figure out Putin's motivations, does not mean that I won't point out some geopolitical consequences of Russian military adventurism. The most obvious is that Russia's fears of NATO are now becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy as NATO moves to bolster its powers along Russia's borders and to strengthen commitments to states bordering Russia's active military adventures (Poland, Turkey) (LINK). It is also leading, it appears, to a strengthening of the US resolve on the issue of Ukraine (LINK).
________
[1] Hill, Fiona and Clifford G. Gaddy. 2015. Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin. Brookings Institution. p 7.
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