Ukraine Crisis News Roundup

Background

I have been working on a paper about covert action.  The paper relies on an extended case study of Russia's various actions in Ukraine since the crisis began in November 2013.  I lived in Ukraine from April 1998 through February 2000 and spent most of my time (12 months) in Donetsk.  I spent another three months in Gorlovka and the remainder of my time in Zaporozhye.  The war in Ukraine is one that has touched the lives of people that I know and love.  My wife is from Russia and my mother-in-law still lives in Russia.  I get a lot of different views on the war living in Kazakhstan and watching Russian news and hearing my students' views of the events.

I won't outline my paper here in full, but the main argument is that states will react to revelations of their covert actions in different ways depending on whether the action was covert to protect the regime from internal pressures, or covert to avoid problems with external states.  I believe that the events in the Donbass have followed a pattern of deliberate misinformation by the Russian state to its own people primarily because Russian involvement in a ground war, civil war, was unpopular to begin with.  The reaction of the government to revelations of Russian involvement have been completely different than reactions to the events in Crimea - which has become a celebrated accomplishment of the regime.

I am collating a collection of information about the conflict that I can use in my own writing.  Maybe it will be useful to others that are looking for more information about what is happening in Ukraine this summer.

Links

Russia Annexing Donbass De facto?

This fascinating article discusses the consequences of Europe supporting Ukraine's position in the Donbass, specifically the need for special status for the Donbass territories to come only after Russia has removed its troops, the rebels have disarmed, and some semblance of order has been restored to the territories. 

Kyiv is insisting that the pro-Moscow rebels disarm, Russia withdraw its troops from Donbas, and that separatist-controlled areas of the border be returned to Ukraine's control before there can be any discussion about the territories' status. 

This puts Moscow in a tough position, which is being called a soft annexation.  

The moves to formally introduce the ruble in the separatist regions, the threats to hold a referendum on joining Russia, and the noise about issuing Russian passports are a last-ditch effort to pressure Kyiv. And Kyiv isn't budging.

Which leaves Moscow stuck taking its least worst option: call it a soft annexation.
And this removes the last bit of leverage Russia has over Kyiv.

"Ukraine will never now be a gray neutral territory between East and West," Ukrainian political analyst Serhiy Taran told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "Either we won't emerge alive from this hell or else we will emerge very strong. I am convinced it will be the latter, if only because this is what everyone except Russia wants." 

Intelligence in the Conflict

Russia is said to be reactivating Soviet Area European spy networks. 

The Czech Republic's counterintelligence agency says the number of Russian spies remains high and the Kremlin is building a spy network in Europe similar to the Soviet network before World War II.

Link