In December, word leaked that Turkey was buying S-400 systems from Russia. There are a number of aspects of this sale that are both interesting and troubling. There are two very interesting aspects to me of this deal. The first is that the sale was apparently concluded based on personal conversations between Erdogan and Putin. I am fascinated by the personal involvement that state leaders have in the sale and transfer of weapons systems. It is an area that is very under-researched, and one that I am working on in various ways in my own research on arms sales.
The second fascinating aspect of this sale for me is the potential that this sale has as an indicator of future alliance moves by Turkey. This article (Link) by RFE-RL has a good write up of the problems that such a move has for NATO and future inter-operability of systems. The news over this past weekend (January 19) that Turkey had launched an offensive against US-Backed Kurdish fighters in Syria also indicates that Turkey may be moving more closely into alignment with Russia on security matters in the region. Neither of these things is good for the strength of NATO and the future of NATO-Turkish relations.
I am fascinated by this potential of arms sales as a bellwether for state relations and policy. In the policy world, there is a great deal of need of and desire for accurate indicators. This is the problem of strategic intelligence and planning. How can we know what is planned by both adversary and ally? That is the first step in determining what our own plans and reactions can be. Looking at arms sales as a leading indicator for alliance shifts seems to be a promising direction for research.
Complicating the Turkish story, however, is a follow up story that appeared just a week (Jan 7, 2018) after the RFE-RL (Dec. 29, 2017) story on Turkey's purchase of the missiles. It is a Reuter's story about the signing of an agreement between Turkey and Eurosam, which is a French-Italian missile firm to develop surface to air missiles jointly.
Russia will not sign agreements to allow for the transfer of its technology, and so Turkey is going to continue to pursue its own missile program. The issue of dependence on supplier is more acute with Russian and Turkish deals since the two countries have a long history of antagonism toward each other.
All of this is to say that although arms transfers may not be the sexiest topic in international relations, there are plenty of interesting things that are happening, plenty of puzzles, and plenty of unexplored stories for those that are interested. And enough material that hopefully those of us that are interested can help others see the importance of this topic.
The second fascinating aspect of this sale for me is the potential that this sale has as an indicator of future alliance moves by Turkey. This article (Link) by RFE-RL has a good write up of the problems that such a move has for NATO and future inter-operability of systems. The news over this past weekend (January 19) that Turkey had launched an offensive against US-Backed Kurdish fighters in Syria also indicates that Turkey may be moving more closely into alignment with Russia on security matters in the region. Neither of these things is good for the strength of NATO and the future of NATO-Turkish relations.
I am fascinated by this potential of arms sales as a bellwether for state relations and policy. In the policy world, there is a great deal of need of and desire for accurate indicators. This is the problem of strategic intelligence and planning. How can we know what is planned by both adversary and ally? That is the first step in determining what our own plans and reactions can be. Looking at arms sales as a leading indicator for alliance shifts seems to be a promising direction for research.
Complicating the Turkish story, however, is a follow up story that appeared just a week (Jan 7, 2018) after the RFE-RL (Dec. 29, 2017) story on Turkey's purchase of the missiles. It is a Reuter's story about the signing of an agreement between Turkey and Eurosam, which is a French-Italian missile firm to develop surface to air missiles jointly.
Russia will not sign agreements to allow for the transfer of its technology, and so Turkey is going to continue to pursue its own missile program. The issue of dependence on supplier is more acute with Russian and Turkish deals since the two countries have a long history of antagonism toward each other.
All of this is to say that although arms transfers may not be the sexiest topic in international relations, there are plenty of interesting things that are happening, plenty of puzzles, and plenty of unexplored stories for those that are interested. And enough material that hopefully those of us that are interested can help others see the importance of this topic.
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